These observations — where I look at Real Madrid’s history, its players on loan, Castilla, tactical tidbits, and other relevant thoughts — are now a regular thing. All previous editions can be found here.
It’s a strange place to be in: Real Madrid are locked and loaded in three major competitions — first in the league, and armed to get past their upcoming Copa del Rey and Champions League knockout opponents, Leganes and Manchester City, respectively. Everything is in play.
Yet, there is an uneasiness heading into a pivotal upcoming stretch. The next opponent in the league, Atletico Madrid, is one of Carlo Ancelotti’s bogey-teams, and a loss to Diego Simeone would mean a fall to second place. On Wednesday, Real Madrid make the cross-town trip to Leganes for the one-legged Copa quarter-final tie. Admittedly, that game in Butarque is the least of Real Madrid’s worries right now, but it is worth noting that this is Copa del Rey, the trophy that often escapes the club in the early stages, and Leganes did eliminate Real Madrid from the Copa in 2018.
And then there is the brutally poor-performing and dead-club-walking Manchester City, who host Real Madrid just three days after Ancelotti’s men have to play against Atletico. City will have had an opportunity to ‘rest’ between the bloodbath loss to Arsenal, some nine days, as their only game in between is an FA Cup 4th round game against Leyton Orient.
On one hand, Real Madrid are so close to greatness. There is a ceiling this team hasn’t hit yet, a display fans have yet to see, where the team zips up its defense, and murders teams in transition with one of the best collections of counter-attacking weapons on paper the world has ever seen.
But the ceiling has not been hit, and glimpses have been few and far in between. Injuries continue to decimate the backline, in the universe’s cruel and twisted way in making sure Real Madrid’s board regret their lack on investment in key positions. To make matters worse, Carlo Ancelotti has shown little-to-no true in youth players who could potentially help in lieu of the lack of signings. Could Jesus Fortea or Lorenzo Aguado have been ready for such a key February stretch? Perhaps. We’ll never know. Their grooming process should’ve been started the moment Dani Carvajal tore his ACL in October. Thankfully, Raul Asencio — an absolute revelation — is ready to help now because he was given a chance (and it took emergency upon emergency!) for him to get a rep or two in.
Ancelotti still hasn’t found his best XI. Even if he could, it would be difficult with so many injuries. Eduardo Camavinga is barely around. The team doesn’t have a natural midfield anchor with Aurelien Tchouameni, perpetually struggling, having to play center-back. As poor as City have been, they will no doubt target Lucas Vazquez with Savinho / Marmoush / Doku before getting the ball into Erling Haaland (one of the rare in-form players Pep has) — with the injured Antonio Rüdiger (supreme Haaland-stopper) no where in sight to help.
Real Madrid have struggled with their ball-progression and defense, which in turn, means the team has less opportunities to feed Vinicius and Kylian Mbappe in meaningful attacking situations. Things are laboured.
Some may look at Arsenal’s 5 – 1 win over City on the weekend as a good omen — proof that Real Madrid can beat City comfortably. Of course, they can. Real Madrid can beat anyone. But I would like to provide an easy counter: They can also lose to anyone, including this City team. Watch the Arsenal game again and take a close look at Arsenal — they pressed efficiently and stayed compact. Real Madrid haven’t shown those defensive traits this season, including when it matters against big teams: Barcelona (twice), Liverpool, AC Milan. Arsenal created opportunities against City through their defense. That’s where it starts.
There is another side to all this pessimism: Real Madrid are alive in all three major competitions, and if they pass this gruelling February test, they’ve done the classic Real Madrid move: Buy time, grind it out, play through poor performances and injuries, and gain momentum heading into the spring. As a general optimist (if you don’t believe me, I was grilled for suggesting Real Madrid can win the Champions League in January of 2022 despite the team looking horrendous), I lean towards this final point: The fact that Real Madrid are in this situation despite not peaking yet is a good thing.
(But it has to improve, dramatically. And if it does, the board can’t use any success at the end of the season to continue being negligent.)